Expert opinion: the exchange Rate. Forecast for may 27-31

28.05.2019


exchange Rate: the forecast for may 27-31 expert PRAVEX Bank Artem Krasovsky, Director of the Department of the Treasury and stock markets.

Despite the large number of political news, the past week in the FX market was quite calm and without regard to noticeable fluctuation during the week, the opening rate on Monday coincided with the closing rate on Friday - 26.30 / 35 hryvnia per U.S. dollar. The market is cautiously positive took the inaugural speech of the newly elected President and the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada, which together with the increased supply of currency has allowed the hryvnia to strengthen to 26.08 / 10 in the first half of the week.

the Positive news was a partial return of interest of foreign investors to the Ukrainian market sovereign debt - the volume of purchases of government bonds last week increased 3 times compared to the previous week, and that was an additional source of sales of foreign currency.

However, since Wednesday the dollar starts to win the position to 26.30 / 35 and reaches peak values 26.47 / 52 to Friday noon, and then again descends to the end of the trading session and closes the week at a moderate level 26.25 / 35. Although situational, the excess demand for foreign currency in the second half of the week, reinforced the ambiguous news background - the controversial first official assignment, forced the postponement of the decision on financing from the IMF, careless comments about the prospects and necessity of default has not allowed the national currency to hold winning positions, in General we can say that the week passed under the sign of the revaluation, since, remained on the same course levels, however, allowed the National Bank to redeem $ 70 million to replenish the gold reserves.

the Current week promises interesting developments on the Ukrainian market securities, particularly government bonds - Clearstream, the international Central securities Depository, Monday should start work in Ukraine by joining our market to your network via an account opened in the Depositary of the National Bank. It is expected that this will facilitate the access of foreign investors in the Ukrainian government securities denominated in the national currency, which will boost liquidity and attractiveness on the international capital market and, ultimately, should lead to growth in the volume of foreign investments in our national debt.

Accordingly, the positive effect of such innovations should feel and rate of national currency. The realisation of these expectations will see on Tuesday or Wednesday, but remains exchange rate forecast for the week at the same levels 25.90 / 26.50.

among the negative factors for the course can be called the potential purchase of dividend the big players, a VAT refund, in the United States in the beginning of the week, as well as political background that in recent years, and on the eve of the election period, tends to become more intense.

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