Expert opinion Forecast of the exchange rate until August 5

30.07.2019


exchange Rate forecast to 5 Aug expert PRAVEX Bank Artem Krasovsky, Director of the Department of the Treasury and stock markets , PRAVEX Bank:

last week, the market continued to radiate optimism and the hryvnia strengthened on the wave passed parliamentary elections and improved business expectations. The rate of national currency on the interbank currency market regained 35 cents per week, mainly thanks to the successful auction of the Ministry of Finance on placement of t-bills on Tuesday, which attracted nearly 7 billion UAH, and securities in the hands of non-residents during the week added about 5 billion , another record – 74 billion UAH. As a result, the foreign exchange supply so exceeded demand that even a significant volume of payments on VAT refunds to companies (over $ 7 billion per week) could not reverse the daily revalvatsionnye dynamics of the hryvnia: the opening of the market, the level of 25.70/80 hryvnia per U.S. dollar on Monday, daily confident strengthening of 5-10 cents, and closing at 25.33 / 37 on Friday, breaking below the lows of 2017. Against this background, looks like a natural constant presence on the market of the NBU purchase of surplus currency reserves with a significant result + $ 261 million. Purchases for the week after moderate + $ 40 million. A week earlier.

it is Worth noting that July was very successful month for our foreign reserves in less than a month, the NBU has already bought more than 760 million. and the volume of net purchases since the beginning of the year exceeded $ 2 billion. (for comparison, for the whole of 2018 was a net purchased 1,372 billion dollars). But this is not an all – time record on Wednesday 24 July, the daily volume of trading currencies on the interbank foreign exchange market reached 535 million dollars. (all currency in USD EQ.), what is the highest value in the last few years (the last time these trade volumes was observed in the beginning of 2014, before the military conflict in the East of the country) and about one and a half times higher than the average of the daily performance of the year.

as for the forecast for the current week, so far nothing portends change the current revalvatsionnye sentiment for hryvnia. The demand for government debt securities auction of the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday is expected to remain high, especially since it is also planned the placement of long-term (5.5 years) of paperwork, which especially attracted the attention of foreign investors. The situation on foreign markets is still very favorable for our trade balance, and the potential increase in consumer demand for imported goods with the appropriate balancing of course, which, ultimately, should allow the current strengthening of the hryvnia is likely to make itself felt towards the end of summer after the holiday season and the revival of business activity.

Our currency forecast USD/HR for a week: 25.00-25.50

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